Not a day goes by without non-experts believing themselves experts because of an anecdote about events that have happened to them or to somebody they know. The very real phenomenon of looking for evidence to support a presupposed theory is the very antithesis of scientific thought. Scientists are fully trained to eliminate it and the scientific process is designed to prevent it through intricately designed testing methods and the peer review process. Unfortunately, the general public who are not aware of how science works fall into this trap all too easily.

1. Playing On Fear

The chemtrails movement is an internet-based phenomenon attempting to get all manner of apparent dangerous chemicals banned ‘ some of it may be based on real concerns but famous debunkers Penn & Teller began an interesting experiment. Demonstrating the confirmation bias of those who believe the scary nature of chemicals and campaign against them, they set up a false petition to ban ‘di-hydrogen monoxide’. This, of course, is water. They listed a number of dangers associated with the substance that were not untrue (associated with drowning, it’s in everything, it contributes to the greenhouse effect)

2. Playing on Prejudice

‘Christmas is Banned: It Offends Muslims’ is an internet meme that has been doing the rounds on social media for the best part of eight years. The sort of websites dedicated to dispelling myths years ago demonstrated that the headline (from The Daily Express) did not relate to the contents of the article ‘ even the writer was horrified that that headline had been chosen. However, that has not stopped people sharing it on social media in anger usually with the tagline ‘how dare they!’ This confirmation bias attempts to play on the prejudices of those who already feel that British society is under siege.

3. Anecdotes

The biggest problem for the scientist is the insistence from the untrained mind to accept ‘what happened to my brother’s son when he ate X’. The most tragic example of this is the quantity of people who today believe that their child ‘caught’ autism as a result of a vaccine. The data for this proposition was fabricated and the man who wrote the paper forbidden from ever again practising medicine. However, that did not stop a vocal anti-vaccine movement in North America with thousands of people insisting that their child’s condition was a result of a vaccine they have taken.

4. Conspiracy Theories

The best example is the widespread belief that the assassination of JFK was some sort of an inside job ‘ something that persists five decades after his death. Certainly from the outside it seems that something is amiss and the silence of successive US governments added fuel to the fire. What really made the idea explode was Oliver Stone’s film JFK which added a few extras into the mix, including a number of characters in order to add extra elements to the story. Some believe he may even have embellished ‘The Magic Bullet Theory’ too

5. The Evils of Bread

Though this was a parody, the use of humour is added to make a serious point: 100% of people who eat bread will eventually die. Famous bread eaters include Josef Stalin, Adolf Hitler and Idi Amin. More than 90% of violent crimes are committed within 24 hours of the consumption of bread etc. What this does is attempt to draw parallels between unrelated things ‘ correlation does not imply causation. However, the untrained mind will often put two unrelated things together. This is another form of confirmation bias.

6. Psychics

Those who seek psychics and others who claim to speak to the dead are already going in heavily in favour of what they are going to see and hear. In cases where the psychic does not have information to hand (such as a one on one situation), and where they cannot make assumptions about the person, a desperate need to believe will lead the person seeking the affirmation to register the hits but ignore the misses and will come out claiming that the psychic got everything right. For example, the psychic might mention a bungalow with a green door in a small village and then mention a dog and a cat. Three of those elements might be wrong but they will be disregarded.

7. The Science is Wrong

Outright denial is a form of confirmation bias, especially when it comes with a deeply entrenched set of beliefs such as religion. There is no more perfect an example of this than through creationism in its many forms. If an individual believes that the planet is only 6000 years old, then any scientific dating method that demonstrates a fossil is a number greater than this proves only that the method is fundamentally flawed. Creationists will also quote relevant Old Testament passages to prove that dinosaurs were around in ‘Bible Times’.

8. Pareidolia

Pareidolia is described as seeing patterns in seemingly unrelated things: seeing faces in carters on the moon, a face and a pyramid on Mars. A good example of this in history is when Emperor Constantine I converted to Christianity after claiming to see the ‘Chi Rho’ symbol in the clouds before a battle. Assuming he did see something and did not merely invent the story as an excuse to convert the Empire to Christianity for political reasons, then it could be the most pivotal case of pareidolia in human history.

9. The Walled Garden

This refers to a closed system of discussion where ‘experts’ reference each other, thereby providing affirmations for those who have already chosen to accept the presupposed answers. A good example of this the creationist movement who already hold each other as experts while dismissing everything outside. A better example is the climate change denialism movement which will only cite each other’s work and protects itself with a wall of accusations of ‘conspiracy’ against conventional science, blurring the line between science and politics.

10. Placebo Effect

In some ways, this is one of the most useful forms of confirmation bias and despite several centuries of medical science, it is still not fully understood. The idea that something will work because you believe it will work is one of the great black sheep ideas in modern medical science. Control groups given pills with no active ingredients for some minor ailments have demonstrated quicker recovery than groups who have not received the (useless) tablets. The psychological effect of believing they will improve aids the actual recovery

Conclusion

Nobody knows who said it, but there is a common internet meme that has been used, re-used and changed but the idea is the same no matter how it is worded: ‘If you were taught that elves caused rain, every time it rained, you’d see the proof of elves.’ This is the essence of confirmation bias ‘ having a presupposed idea and looking for evidence to support and, ignoring that evidence that challenges or even disproves what you have already chosen to believe.